With the World Series finished and the Hot Stove season kicking into full gear, most of us will be tuned in very closely to MLBTradeRumors for all the latest transactional developments. Recently on MLBTR, the gang over there released the 2010 Top 50 Free Agents list, complete with both the ranked list of players and the teams with whom the MLBTR crew expects them to land.

So who tops the list for MLBTR? It should come as no surprise that corner outfielder Matt Holliday is at the top of every team’s wish list. The outfielder split the season between the Oakland Athletics and the St. Louis Cardinals and excelled as he always had back in his days at Coors Field with the Colorado Rockies. How much can we expect Holliday to be worth? Let’s take a look.

Matt Holliday began his season in Oakland, arriving as part of a trade from the Rockies to the A’s which included talented reliever Huston Street and enigmatic outfielder Carlos Gonzalez among others heading to Colorado. At the time of the move, a lot was made about how Holliday would play away from Coors Field, which was his home for five years before. The question was deemed particularly relevant because of the drastic home/road splits displayed by Holliday. In his career, Holliday has displayed a 1.3:1 split between home and road OPS respectively (including this season), which most folks attributed to effect of Coors Field on every hitter.

Well, this season Holliday split time playing in the cavernous Oakland Coliseum and Busch Stadium II, which also plays like a good pitchers park. Holliday put up a .982 OPS at home and an .830 OPS on the road, good for a 1.18:1 ratio that is probably well explained by the move away from Coors and to two pitcher-friendly environments, but one that probably is mostly taken care of by park adjustments. It seems like Holliday just enjoys the comfort of his home stadium a bit more than others.

Still, detractors point out the early problems Holliday had when he started in Oakland. He had a .286 wOBA in his first month in Oakland, though conveniently people forget that he had a nice May (.386), solid June (.365), and awesome July (.421) before he was dealt to St. Louis in a deal where the Cardinals gave up way too much (prized 1B/3B prospect Brett Wallace and two other very useful parts).

Of course, perhaps the most “damning” of all aspects of Holliday’s season this year is that, once arriving back at a familiar National League facility and facing National League pitching, Holliday went a torrid streak, finishing hitting .353/.419/.604 with a .423 wOBA in 270 PA in St. Louis. Cardinals fans were less concerned with the haul they gave away to Billy Beane and Oakland after witnessing the old Colorado Matt Holliday tear up NL pitching.

Ultimately, Holliday ended the season with a .395 park-adjusted wOBA, good for 36 runs above average on offense in total. Combine that with his above average (if not awkward looking, at least to the scouts) defense, and you have a player that once again has posted another 5+ WAR season. Holliday’s production this season was worth $25.6M in the open market, according to FanGraphs.

But of course, the key isn’t what was he worth before but rather what should he be worth in the future. Projecting Holliday’s park-adjusted wOBA’s from the last five years gives a projected value of .393 when regressed to 220 PA of the mean of .330. Projecting Holliday’s defensive value was slightly trickier. While UZR consistently has him as an above average left fielder (career UZR/150 of +7 runs), the scouting reports heard from most folks have him as below average. This is reflected in the way the Fans have voted in the Fans Scouting Report over the last four years, rating him as a -3 defender per 150 games based on a weighted average of the 2005-2008 results. Given this discrepancy, it was definitely important to take both inputs into consideration. Weighing UZR at 75% and the Fans at 25% for all seasons except the most recent (for 2009, only UZR was used), I got a projected value of five runs above average per 150 games for Holliday defensively.

Given these inputs and a league average wOBA of .330, this is what we might expect to see from Holliday next year.

34.3 wRAA + 5 defense + -6.9 positional adj. (LF) + 21.9 replacement adj. = 54.2 Runs Above Average, or 5.4 WAR

That 5.4 WAR, at the current market rate, would be expected to be worth $24.3M, both numbers very similar to what he earned this season. Consider also that Holliday is a Scott Boras client, meaning the money should definitely flow from whoever signs Holliday (MLBTR has the New York Mets as the big winner). I suspect that Holliday will be looking at the type of money Mark Teixeira received last year from the Yankees. This is actually a fair amount if you consider that teams do not believe he is a good defender; if you take that -3 runs/150 games instead of the +5 runs estimate, that knocks off 0.8 wins, or $3.6M from his expected value. That kind of discount puts him right at $20.7M, a bit over what Teixeira is making this season in the first year of his eight year, $180M deal.

There should be absolutely no concern about the supposed “Coors effect” on Matt Holliday. Holliday is a great hitter regardless of home park, a Larry Walker rather than a Dante Bichette. The bidding war that will undoubtedly occur for his services heading into three or so prime seasons of play will be deserved, and Holliday is expected to receive a hefty sum. Good luck, and may the battle with Scott Boras begin.

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This entry was posted on Monday, November 9th, 2009 at 7:12 pm and is filed under Player Profile. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.