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Intro to Sabermetrics 101
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BaseRuns: The Ultimate in Run Estimation (so far)
- By Michael Jong
- November 20th, 2009
In the last few Fundamentals sections, I've been discussing run estimators.
First, we started with one of the originals, Runs Created.
Then, we discussed a little about linear weights.
Both system types had their share of positives and negatives.
One common thing I mentioned for both is that, because both systems were designed with certain run environments in mind (linear weights by definition must be based on certain environments, while Runs Created was initially made through observational analysis of the major league environment by Bill James), they falter when taken "out of their element."
Today, we're going to discuss the current premier run estimator, BaseRuns.
The reason why BaseRuns is considered the best run estimation tool at the moment is because it has the closest model to reality of any of...
Player Profile: The Rookies of the Year
- By Michael Jong
- November 16th, 2009
Today, the AL and NL Rookie of the Year awards were announced, and let me congratulate the Florida Marlins' Chris Coghlan and the Oakland Athletics' Andrew Bailey on winning the NL and AL awards respectively.
Both players had excellent seasons in their own way, and were among the best rookies of each league.
That being said, the numbers suggest that they were NOT the best rookies.
Here, we're going to look a little more into some numbers to find out what players should have been in the mix.
(more...)...
Linear Weights: The Positive and Negative (Runs)
- By Michael Jong
- November 13th, 2009
Last week we discussed Runs Created as one of the innovators in the field of run estimators.
We talked about the benefits, flaws, and limitations of Runs Created.
One of the mentioned limitations is the inability to use the Runs Created formula as initially written to find the run contribution of individual players, because the Runs Created formula was designed at the team level.
This week, we'll talk about a system that can work on both the individual and team levels with good accuracy, but has its own flaws endemic to it.
The system in question is the linear weights system.
Linear weights is a simple concept: to each event that occurs in baseball, assign a run value to the event over some baseline, and multiply those values to the amounts...
Intro to Sabermetrics 101: Glossary Sect. 2
- By Michael Jong
- November 13th, 2009
Linear Weights Source: The Book Wiki With run expectancy, we can determine the expected runs scored of the various base/out states (keep in mind this is outside the context of the inning and score). If we have the base/out state prior to and after a certain event, such as the double mentioned above, we can then attribute the difference in run expectancy to the event. For example, the double mentioned above would have been worth 0.634 runs, the difference in expectancy from the two base/out states. If we do this for all sorts of events over a long period of time, we can come up with the average run value for each event, from a double to a home run to an out. And with that you get what's called linear weights of...
The Value of Walks and Baseball's "Clock"
- By Michael Jong
- November 13th, 2009
In the previous Friday lecture, I discussed a bit about runs, how they're determined, and why it is important that all events be placed in terms of them. Runs are indeed valuable, but they are just half of what determines wins and losses in a baseball game. Today I'll discuss the other important aspect of baseball, baseball's "clock." But first, let's start with a question that I once pondered when I first got into sabermetrics and one that, while many people may generally understand, isn't always best explained: why are walks so valuable? Or, to ask it in a way more commonly asked, why do sabermetricians glorify the walk so much? Here are the answers: 1) Walks are only as valuable as they are in terms of runs (remember, we learned that on...
Player Profile: Matt Holliday
- By Michael Jong
- November 13th, 2009
With the World Series finished and the Hot Stove season kicking into full gear, most of us will be tuned in very closely to MLBTradeRumors for all the latest transactional developments. Recently on MLBTR, the gang over there released the 2010 Top 50 Free Agents list, complete with both the ranked list of players and the teams with whom the MLBTR crew expects them to land. So who tops the list for MLBTR? It should come as no surprise that corner outfielder Matt Holliday is at the top of every team's wish list. The outfielder split the season between the Oakland Athletics and the St. Louis Cardinals and excelled as he always had back in his days at Coors Field with the Colorado Rockies. How much can we expect Holliday to...
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