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Statistical analysis of Blazers recent struggles
  • By Nick Poust
  • December 4th, 2009

The Portland Trail Blazers are searching for answers. The team has lost three straight games and looked awful in each defeat. They have the star, Brandon Roy, the sidekick, LaMarcus Aldridge, and the complimentary role players–Greg Oden, Andre Miller, Rudy Fernandez, just to name a few–to be a force in the Western Conference, but their ineffective tendencies offensively and defensively aren’t problems that can be fixed overnight.

Their anemic play began at home against the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Blazers didn’t score over the final six and a half minutes of the first quarter, either settling for outside, low-percentage jumpers or missing point-blank attempts at the rim. While they went 13 possessions without scoring, Memphis made seven of eleven shots attempted.

How does this happen? Portland went to their bench. On this occasion, this unit included Fernandez, Joel Przybilla, and Miller. Roy and Aldridge, who were still on the floor, are usually consistent options offensively, but when they miss as part of this rotation, the Blazers are far too predictable. Fernandez is, and was during this stretch, one-dimensional. He is a spot-up three-point shooter, and though he can create off the dribble, he’s a long-range shooter first and foremost. Pryzbilla is no Oden offensively, and usually only scores when he’s in the right place at the right time. He is Oden defensively, but though he has the same ability to affect and block shots, offenses don’t find him as intimidating. While Przybilla was in the game in the second quarter, all seven field goals made by Memphis came in the paint, and four were layups. To round out the five on the floor is Miller, who is not a particularly good outside shooter. His lack of range resulted in inadequate spacing.

Because of their drought to finish the second quarter, and their overall porous first half, they were behind by 22 at intermission, having scored only 39 points. They were on the wrong end of a 31-2 run, and made only 15 of 42 field goals. Factoring the trio of Roy, Aldridge, and Martell Webster out of the equation, the rest of the team combined to make just 2 of their 18 attempts from the field, and didn’t make amends for this lack of offensive production by totaling three assists and seven rebounds.

Portland improved in the second half, scoring 57 points to raise their field goal percentage to a still unacceptable 40 percent, but despite their improved offense and the fact that they shaved 12 points off Memphis’s halftime lead, they still struggled mightily on defense. The Grizzlies scored 45 points in the second half and shot an extremely efficient 54 percent from the floor overall.

This field goal percentage allowed to Memphis was a job well done compared to Utah’s percentage the following night. The Jazz started strong and the Blazers started slow. Utah made everything from everywhere over the first few minutes, and continued throughout the contest; the Blazers allowed the Jazz to make nine of their first ten field goal attempts, and shoot 60 percent for the game.

Portland man-to-man defense not only wasn’t aggressive enough contesting jumpers, the poorly run scheme allowed Utah to space the floor to their liking and tally up the assists. In the opening frame, the Jazz had 11 assists on 13 field goals. In comparison, the Blazers scored 17 points, made four field goals over the quarter’s first nine and a half minutes, and had just four assists.

Some teams that don’t play good, consistent defense can make up for it with a high-powered, fluid offense. When the Blazers defense allows the opposition to play their style of basketball, as was the case against the Jazz, they don’t have a run ‘n gun offense that can trade baskets. They found their rhythm in the second quarter, scoring 17 points over a five-minute span, but had far too many lapses on defense, allowing point guard Deron Williams and power forward Carlos Boozer to play a deadly two-man game.

The Jazz duo torched the Blazers in the first half, combining to score 27 points and dish 14 assists. In the two periods, they accounted for 41 of their 59 points. Does Portland adjust their defense and find a way to contain them? No. The second half was the same story. The combination had a hand in 26 second-half points, and the Jazz won by 17 points.

Portland couldn’t stop Memphis’s assortment of guards or their power forward, Zach Randolph. They couldn’t stop Williams or Boozer either. Then, Miami Heat guard Dwayne Wade, forward Michael Beasley, and center Jermaine O’Neal came to town, and the Blazers had all sorts of trouble keeping them at bay.

Portland put together an impressive first quarter, scoring 28 points, but allowed Miami to score 32 points. The trio had a hand in 22 of those points. O’Neal, Beasley, and Wade quieted down a bit, scoring 20 points over the next 14 minutes, but though their production minimally diminished, they still exploited the Blazers defense by playing to their strengths offensively, and, when they didn’t score, forced the defense to collapse and leave a supporting cast member open.

The Blazers were within eight points at the seven-minute mark of the third quarter. But over the final seven minutes of the frame, they didn’t make a field goal. They were aggressive offensively, getting to the free-throw line 12 times while grabbing four offensive rebounds. Yet, though the absence of Aldridge had something to do with it, their offense was out of sync. They weren’t running smooth scoring plays. Everything was forced and difficult.

Though the Blazers were aggressive in this instance, they predominately lived on the perimeter, which was the case in all three defeats. Yes, Oden produced inside, and the team had their fair share of layups, but what allowed these three teams to shoot over 53 percent and win convincingly was Portland’s inability to go inside on a regular basis. They took 24 three-pointers against Memphis, and attempted 43 shots from beyond 15-feet. Against Utah, they took less three-pointers, 19, but missed 16, and attempted 41 jump-shots overall. Against Miami, they shot 46 jumpers. In each of the three games, there field goal percentage was at least 8 percent less than their opponents–opponents that took advantage of their poor interior defense and maximized every possession.

Now, the high jump-shooting totals are primarily because they have plenty of jump-shooters: Webster, Fernandez, and Blake are three-point shooters, and Aldridge, Howard, and Cunningham are mid-range specialists. But for this team to be successful, these players need to become multi-dimensional. Webster, Fernandez, and Blake combined to shoot 8-25 against Miami, 10-23 against Memphis (Webster had nine of those field goals), and 9-22 against Utah (including 3-12 from three-point range). Though Webster had a tremendous game against the Grizzlies, the trio was streaky, which substantially hurt the Blazers chances of running a consistent offense.

Howard is past his prime, and is contributing the best he can, while Cunningham is learning the ropes as a rookie, but Aldridge’s lack of aggressiveness is definitely a concern. He possesses the tenacity and talent to succeed down low, but especially in the two games he played during this stretch, he was reluctant to post-up his defender, create contact, and even attempt to add another dimension to his currently predictable game.

Portland has some kinks to work out, and it all starts on the defensive end. If the Blazers can be the team that allowed an average of only 93 points per game over the first 16 games, that would take so much pressure off their offense. If their defense showed up on a nightly basis, their offensive flow would drastically improve; creating turnovers would lead to extra points, and a higher frequency of missed shots by the opposition would lead to easy transition buckets. With that, the opponent would be confused and backpedalling on defense, the opposite of what has transpired throughout three forgettable games.

Five things that contributed to their recent slide:

1. A horrid defense: the opposition combined to make 18 of 37 three-point attempts and shoot 55 percent from the field.

2. When the bench produces, the starters don’t. Against Memphis, two bench players scored–Miller and Fernandez. Against Utah, there were as many bench players that scored in double-figures, two, as starters. Against Miami, Miller and Howard scored 32 points off the bench, while the starters combined to shoot 22-64 from the field.

3. Head coach Nate McMillan’s reluctance to use Oden when the center is in foul trouble. In two games, he pulled the big center with two fouls at the end of the first half, and the opponent went on a closing run that set the tempo for the remainder of both contests. I guess he doesn’t know that finishing quarters is important, that it takes 6 fouls to foul out, not 3, and that Oden has fouled out only once this season.

4. The jump-shooting offense. Settling for jump-shots throughout a game makes life easier on the defense and harder on the Blazers offense. McMillan has yet to instill aggression on both sides of the ball. (Time and time again, he’ll motion to the ball-handler to push the tempo as he reaches half-court, then watch the guard stop, set up a play, and start the possession with ten seconds left on the shot-clock).

5. Forwards Nicolas Batum and Travis Outlaw are injured. Batum is a defensive wizard. Outlaw is an offensive mastermind. They need both back, as the loss of the two has certainly worn on the team.

Batum is due back in January, Outlaw a little later. Aussie guard Patty Mills will be ready by Christmas, and should provide some offense and pick up the passing game. Hopefully the Blazers can figure out how to play winning basketball before then.

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