A changeup.  90 miles per hour.  A changeup.  Justin Lehr, listed by many (misguided) individuals as the leader for #5 starter (he’s not) doesn’t throw his fastball at 90 mph.  Danny Herrera couldn’t even dream of throwing 90.  Chapman throws his change at that speed.

That’s talent that is hard to ignore.

Instead, starting second baseman Akinori Iwamura got hurt, Zobrist got regular time, and had a terrific year.  In fact, if WAR is your meta-stat of choice, he was the best player in the American League last year.  That’s one reason I am still skeptical of the increasingly popular WAR:  Zobrist and not Joe Mauer?  Still, Zobrist had a strong year and fared well in both Win Shares and WARP.

Zobrist credits much of his breakout to Jaime Cervallos, referred to here in this article at the Bloomberg Sports blog at MLBlogs.com by Tommy Rancel as “the swing mechanic.” And Drew Sutton, Reds infielder and friend of Zobrist, is also working with Mr. Rancel.  Is Sutton a breakout candidate like Zobrist?  Red Reporter has an interview with Cervallos, asking many such important questions.

Well, of course, Drew Sutton is not Ben Zobrist.  But, he is a talented infielder.  Sutton hit just .212 in reserve duty for Cincinnati last year, but recently revealed he was battling mononucleosis all year.  Now apparently healthy and back at playing weight, 25 pounds heavier, he is due for an improvement anyway.

While most focus on Aroldis Chapman, the Sutton story may be among the most interesting in camp.  In addition, a good performance by Sutton might make it easier for the team to trade Brandon Phillips before he gets much more expensive next season.  So the big wheel of baseball spins.

The only thing the rest of the baseball world is learning about in Reds camp is the story of Aroldis Chapman.  That’s fair, as the guy is certainly big news:  a nearly unknown lefty who is rumored to throw 100 mph, who shows up in a major league spring training camp and starts throwing bullets right away.

While there were rumors of triple digits, reliable scouting reports had Chapman throwing in game conditions in the mid-90s with readings on the gun as high as 98 mph.  That, friends, is bringing serious heat.  Even better, Chapman has displayed an ability to throw strikes with that moving fastball, and also with his breaking stuff, which has been solid as well:  a sharp-breaking slider, and a good curveball.

It is more and more evident that Chapman brings major league stuff to the table.  What is unclear is when he will make his regular season debut.  In a way, I think the Reds are waiting for Chapman to fail for the first time, so it will be easier to send him to the minors and help him get his bearings in the American culture, such a change from Cuba.  But what if he doesn’t fail?  Could he go through the whole spring without giving up a run, and make it impossible for the team to send him down?

I doubt it.  At some point, as the regulars get more time, and Chapman stretches out to longer stints, he will get hit one day.  When he does, he will get sent to the minors to start the season.  It is starting to look as though that minor league sojourn will be very, very short.

Chris Valaika should not be disregarded, at least according to John Fay.  Fay did an article on Valaika, who fell off a lot of prospect lists after a poor year in 2009.  Of course, he rose up most of those prospect lists after a big 2008, so it was easy come, easy go.  Valaika will have to play his way back into the team’s plans in Louisville, but he could do that.

Yonder Alonso is open to playing other positions (besides first base) and has taken balls at third and also shagged flies in the outfield.  He’ll have to do something with Joey Votto in front of him.  Mark Sheldon wrote on Alonso.  His job will also be to impress at Louisville, though I think Alonso is likely to end up trade bait.

Aaron Harang will start on Opening Day for the fifth year in a row, tying the record held by Pete Donohue (in the 1920s) and Mario Soto (in the 1980s).  Seems odd that Donohue was making those starts rather than Eppa Rixey, but who knows.  In a lot of those year, Soto was about all the Reds had going for them, so that doesn’t surprise.

The Redleg Nation blog has become affiliated with Cincinnati’s last newspaper, the Enquirer.  Congratulations to Chad and the guys at RN, who run a top-notch outfit.  You guys are lending class to the Enquirer, Chad, much more than the other way around.

More to come.

At the same time, there are some things we can tell from the early spring:  who is hurting, of course, and who is healthy, and also what kinds of decisons could be made, and what the processes on those decisions are.  One of the major things we will look at through the spring is the decision process as the 25 guys to go north are chosen, some players go to the minors and others are released.

Oh, and a note I missed earlier:  to make room for Jonny Gomes on the 40-man roster, Edinson Volquez was placed on the 60-day disabled list, which does not count against the 40-man.  Deft roster management, since Volquez will be rehabbing from his surgery for a few months.

Dusty Baker named the starter for Friday’s spring training opener, and it’s Mike Lincoln.  Lincoln hasn’t started a game since 2001 when he was in AAA ball.  So, let’s review:  Lincoln had a decent season in the bullpen in 2008, was signed to a silly two-year deal, missed most of 2009 with bulging discs in his back, and now he is going to be a candidate for the #5 starter position.  Never mind that the Reds have ten better candidates for the spot, why would you consider making such a move in the first place?  Spring craziness.

Baker also told reporters today he would be using Brandon Phillips as the cleanup hitter again this year.  He has indicated that Orlando Cabrera would be the #2 hitter, even though he is better suited to hit #7 or #8.  The lineup, at least early on, figures to go Stubbs/Cabrera/Votto/Phillips/Rolen/Bruce/Dickerson/Hernandez, with Gomes going in at #7 (or #6, with Bruce moving down) against lefties.  It is suboptimal, but as Trent Rosecrans has been reminding us, lineup slotting is not nearly as important as who is in the lineup.

By the end of the season, Jay Bruce should have established himself as the team’s best cleanup man.  Whether Votto and Bruce will hit back to back, or the Reds will avoid doing that as they did when it was Griffey and Dunn who belonged at #3 and #4, we will have to see.  It would get Phillips closer to the #6 where he should hit.

This week of camp will be mostly about getting people ready for that first game.  It is gearing-up week.

Cozart is a strong defensive shortstop who hit .262 with 10 HR and 10 SB last year at AA Carolina.  He’ll play shortstop this season at Louisville, and then I fully expect him to take over at shortstop in 2011 in Cincinnati.  Cozart has defensive chops nearly as good as Paul Janish, but with better hitting potential.  He is 24 and should be a good regular for a few years.

Fellhauer was a 7th round pick out of Cal State Fullerton last year, then hit .280 in 57 games at Dayton.  He’s a little guy and a lefthanded hitter with good defensive ratings.  He figures to go to Lynchburg for 2010.  Sickels compares him to David DeJesus, the multi-talented outfielder for Kansas City.

Billy Hamilton is the toolsy shortstop and second round pick from Mississippi who hit .209 in the Gulf Coast League.  Hamilton is very athletic, but not very experienced at playing baseball.  His development will take time.  They will probably keep him in extended spring training until the Billings season starts later in the summer and then send him there.

Donnie Joseph is a tall lefty drafted in the third round out of the U. of Houston in 2009.  He’s a reliever with a fastball in the low 90s and a decent slider.  He did well at Billings, then had a little more trouble at Dayton.  He figures to be a bullpen lefty at Lynchburg this season.  At 22, he could move up fast.

Matt Maloney is a left-handed starter who made seven starts in Cincinnati at the end of 2009 and posted a 2-4 record and 4.87 ERA.  That was after 22 starts at Louisville with a 9-9 record and 3.08 ERA.  Maloney does not throw very hard, with an upper-80s fastball, a slider, curve, and a changeup.  He has terrific control and gets good strikeouts rates by mixing his pitches well.  I think he has the inside track on the #5 starter job for 2010.  He will always be vulnerable to the home run, especially in Great American Ballpark, but he can do the job at the back of the rotation.

Chris Valaika took at step back in 2009 after a strong 2008.  He hit just .235 at Louisville with 6 HR.  With Cozart coming, Valaika is likely to go to second base for 2010.  He’ll have to get back to his career minor league average of .290 to put himself back in the team’s plans, and even then he might end up as part of a trade.

Travis Wood had a breakthrough in 2009, posting a 9-3 record in 19 starts at Chattanooga with a 1.21 ERA, then a 4-2 record in eight starts at Louisville with a 3.14 ERA.  He is a finesse lefty like Maloney, though his stuff is a bit better.  A good impression in the spring could get him into the rotation to start 2010, but more likely he will go to Louisville and then end up in Cincinnati at some point in 2010.