As part of my participation in the 2009 Baseball Bloggers Alliance awards, we now come to the National League Cy Young award.  This is, in my opinion, the toughest choice of all the awards this year.  There are no less than four excellent candidates for the award, and several others who deserve mention.

To begin, we once again turn to the numbers.  First, the NL Win Shares leaders among pitchers, from Bill James Online: Tim Lincecum, 22; Adam Wainright and Chris Carpenter, 21; Danny Haren and Matt Cain, 20; Ubaldo Jiminez and Josh Johnson, 19; Jair Jurrjens, 17.  Then there are three at 16 and four more at 15.

Next, the WARP1 leaders from Baseball Prospectus: Dan Haren 8.9;  Javier Vazquez and Chris Carpenter 7.9;  Adam Wainright and Jair Jurrjens 7.8,  Ubaldo Jiminez 7.6,  Josh Johnson 7.3,  Tim Lincecum 7.2,  Wandy Rodriguez 7.1,  Matt Cain 6.0.

And, from FanGraphs, WAR (Wins Against Replacement):  Lincecum 8.2, Vazquez 6.6, Haren 6.1, Wainright and Jiminez 5.7, Carpenter 5.6, Johnson 5.5.

Perhaps you prefer more of a “clutch” stat, WPA (Win Probability Added)?  Then you get Carpenter 5.41, Lincecum 4.26, Wainright 3.60, Huston Street 3.38, Jurrjens 3.35.

Oh, maybe you’re one of the boring people who wants “regular” stats?  Well, Wainright had 19 wins, Carpenter 17, Jorge de la Rosa 16, while eight guys had 15.  Carpenter led with a 2.24 ERA, Lincecum 2.48, Jurrjens 2.60, Wainright 2.63.  Lincecum had 261 strikeouts, Vazquez 238, Haren 223.

So, who to pick?  The numbers give us no clear winner.  Different guys won each of the three “pitchers’ triple crown” stats.  The metastats split.  What to do?  Well, we must do what award pickers have been doing for years;  use our best judgment, guided by a feeling of “value” to the team.

Based on that, my pick is Tim Lincecum.  Lincecum led in strikeouts, topped Win Shares and WAR, and seemed to be the main driving force in the Giants’ drive for the postseason, the main reason they were contenders.  Sure, the Giants had Cain and Sandoval, but who do you think was most important to them?  I think it was Lincecum.

Next, I think, is Carpenter.  He was perceived as the St. Louis staff leader, was the league ERA leader, and was a steady staff presence.  I’ll put Wainright, teammate and the wins leader, third.

There are a lot of other guys who deserve mention, just short of those two:  I think the next ones would be Haren, who pitched so well for a poor team in Arizona, and Vazquez, who held the staff together in Atlanta.  Jurrjens and Jiminez are just behind them.

But, the final ballot:

1. Tim Lincecum

2. Chris Carpenter

3. Adam Wainright

This entry was posted on Sunday, October 18th, 2009 at 1:30 pm and is filed under Baseball Bloggers Alliance. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.